Understanding the Non-Return of Syrian Refugees in Lebanon. Evidence from Central Bekaa and Greater Beirut

Abstract

This report examines the determinants of non-return among Syrian refugees in Lebanon a year after the regime change in Syria. The study analyses how demographic, socioeconomic, geographic, political and other structural factors shape refugees’ aspirations and capabilities to return to Syria. The research is based on mixed-method fieldwork conducted in Greater Beirut and Central Bekaa in January 2026, including 537 surveys and 25 key informant interviews. Findings indicate that a majority of Syrian refugee respondents did not intend to return to Syria at the time of the study. While security concerns remain an important determinant of return, they do not alone explain continued displacement. Rather, return perceptions are shaped by the interaction of multiple determinants operating in both Syria and Lebanon. Strong determinants include gender, parental status, perceived security risks, place of residence, relationships with host communities, confidence in Syria’s transitional authorities, expected access to basic services and sectarian affiliations. Economic conditions, employment, education, housing, income and documentation-related factors influence return in more differentiated ways, sometimes shaping refugees’ capabilities rather than their aspirations alone. The findings further reveal increasingly blurred boundaries between voluntary and indirectly pressured return amid growing precarity in Lebanon. Overall, the study demonstrates that return cannot be understood through security or political change alone. Sustainable return policies require multidimensional approaches that address the diverse determinants shaping refugees’ aspirations and capabilities, while placing refugee perspectives, experiences, and priorities at the centre of return programming.