An impactful political shift in Portugal: 50 years of democracy, 50 deputies from the radical right. The reasons for Chega's success in the 2024 legislative elections

Abstract

In the year Portugal commemorates the 50th anniversary of the 25 April 1974 Revolution, the radical right party Chega obtained a historic result in the legislative elections. From achieving its first member of parliament in 2019, Chega grew in just five years to a third-place finish and the election of 50 deputies in 2024, ending the two-party hegemony that defined Portuguese politics until now. This thesis will analyse the reasons for Chega’s growth and especially its success in the 2024 legislative elections. It considers four potential explanations: political corruption, economic weaknesses, failure of public services and public policies, and the use of social media in the political campaign. Methodologically, it uses quantitative and qualitative data. It links each of the hypotheses to Chega’s success by considering time trends, voting patterns, and political campaigns. It finds that each of the main hypotheses had an effect on the outcome. Chega capitalised on the Portuguese exhaustion and dissatisfaction with the mainstream parties concerning political corruption, the country’s economic weaknesses, the crisis in several public services and the failure of public policies. In addition, the social media campaign strategy differentiated Chega from the other parties, allowing the party to spread its message more effectively and benefiting electorally from it. The success in the 2024 legislative elections could be just the beginning of Chega’s increasing influence in Portuguese politics, mainly if the mainstream parties do not deliver results and fail to represent the principles they claim.