Once a terrorist, always a terrorist? : how do European prison and probation systems assess risk of radicalization

Abstract

Terrorism is one of the leading security concerns across the globe (Doherty & Hartig, 2021, para. 1). Specifically, Europe has faced this threat for the past years (European Union: Terrorism Situation and Trend Report, 2021, p. 6). Consequently, this paper will address one of the understudied phenomena of terrorism: radicalization and deradicalization in prison (Graumans & Rahimi, 2015/16, p. 39). With the help of the available information, this research will compare the indicators of three European risk assessment tools of radicalization (VERA-2R used a.o. in Germany, Finland, Belgium, ERG22+, used in England and Wales, and DRaVY, used in Spanish prisons). The main goal is to comprehend to what extent these elements differ and resemble across Europe. The driving hypothesis expects these tools to hold a considerable amount of similarities as they are believed to be based upon pre-existing literature. The in-depth literature review shows that research lacks reliable data and conclusive information on radicalization and de-radicalization indicators (Allen et al., 2021, p. 16; Dawson, 2019, p. 155; Graumans & Rahimi, 2015/16, pp. 41-42; Saltman, 2016). Thus, these shortcomings question the utility of risk assessment tools and their guidance on counter-terrorism strategies. Terrorism and counter-terrorism are broad and complex phenomena for which further research is necessary. So far, their associations cannot be assumed as no statistical evidence confirms them.