Shifts Determinations of Illegal Emigration of Tunisians

Abstract

This study addresses a pressing issue: the burgeoning rates of illegal emigration from Tunisia starting from 2020 till now, contrasting with previous years and marked by shifts in patterns. This evolution has ignited a national debate, with perspectives attributing these transformations to social media's impact on migration decisions, exposure to violence and marginalization, and political and economic upheavals within Tunisia. This study thus endeavors to uncover the major factors driving these shifts and escalating rates of illegal emigration. The study's key findings, derived from statistical and thematic analyses, unveil a number of factors contributing to Tunisia's surging illegal emigration rates. Regression analyses highlight the impact of inflation, political stability, absence of violence, and government ineffectiveness. Thematic analysis uncovers additional factors such as: COVID-19's influence, political and economic deterioration, mistrust in the government, human trafficking and migrant smuggling networks, social dynamics, marginalization, visa restrictions, economic opportunities, social media, and employment prospects. Moreover, the demographic landscape of irregular migrants in Tunisia has shifted significantly, encompassing diverse groups including highly educated individuals, women, minors, and families. The study delves into comprehensive explanations for this transformation. Notably, Tunisian women's decision to engage in irregular emigration is driven by a blend of economic and social factors, including evolving gender roles, societal perceptions, and migration ideals. Unaccompanied minors, in turn, are swayed by environmental, consciousness-related, and familial influences, along with the impact of social norms and peer pressure. Similarly, family motivations stem from economic disparities, disillusionment, broken promises, and societal reactions, bolstered by collective factors such as familiarity with immigration policies and regional dynamics. Likewise, the study dissects the motivations of well-educated individuals opting for illegal emigration, attributing their choices to restricted job opportunities, stringent European migration policies, and Tunisia's socioeconomic disparities. Additionally, the study assesses the dual impact of irregular emigrants on Tunisia's economy. Positive aspects include remittances as a vital source of currency and successful emigrants acting as ambassadors. However, challenges emerge, including the loss of skilled labor, demographic shifts, cultural shocks, strains on public services and infrastructure, and localized economic impacts. Critically, the study critiques the Tunisian government's predominantly security-focused approach and advocates for a comprehensive strategy addressing the root causes of illegal emigration. Therefore, the study recommended some recommendations such as: developing and implementing a comprehensive national strategy that addresses the root causes of illegal emigration, focusing on restoring trust in the government to address the state of frustration, enhancing transparency and accountability, Strengthening social safety systems to support vulnerable populations, including families and unaccompanied minors.