Profiles of dependence in defense AI: strategic autonomy and human rights in Israel and the United Arab Emirates

Abstract

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a rapidly developing technology especially in the field of defense. And while some countries develop it domestically, others rely on external procurement to obtain it. However, even with domestic production, reliance on different parties whether foreign governments or private firms still exists across the supply chain. Knowing this, this thesis aims to understand why some countries manage to reduce their dependence and produce their defense AI locally while others are unable to. It also aims to understand how the varying levels of dependence differently affect state autonomy, security decision making, and human rights. To answer these questions, the thesis compares the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Israel’s AI production mechanisms, and relies on four theoretical frameworks, of which an extended version of dependency theory forms the central structure. This theory is complemented by technological sovereignty, Morgenthau’s elements of national power, and international humanitarian and human rights law. These frameworks work together, and are adapted when needed to incorporate the modern dynamics brought by AI and the emergence of private companies as players in the field of defense. The research found that the conditions that determine where a state ends up on the dependence axis are historical, economic, political, and also institutional. These elements interact together and produce unique profiles for each country. The findings confirmed also that full autonomous production is not an attainable goal in the foreseeable future, and that states have shifted toward managing and reducing dependence rather than eliminating it. For Israel, the findings show that the country is dependent in specific areas across its supply chain but in a measurable way that makes it easier to address in the future, unlike the UAE which is reliant on procurement and unequal partnerships pushing itself further into dependence. Findings also show that local production can strengthen a state's autonomy, particularly in security decision-making, and can increase a state’s strategic power rather than its operational capability contrary to a procurement heavy model. Local production can also create better conditions for protecting human rights, but in a less straightforward way, as this depends heavily on the political context since the same production capacity can either protect or threaten human rights depending on who controls it.