The relationship between support for populist parties and a government’s COVID-19 response. Case studies of the Netherlands and Italy

Abstract

Populism has been on the rise for several decades. Its causes are complex and its effect on democracy can be detrimental. In the past year, COVID-19 has disrupted public life. Because of the profound effect populism and COVID-19 both have on society, it is important to understand the relationship between the two. This thesis examines whether there is a link between the response of a populist and non-populist government to COVID-19 and support for populist parties. To this end, a comparative analysis between the cases of the Netherlands and Italy is conducted. The analysis focuses on the stringency of the COVID-19 measures, public support for populist parties and support for the COVID-19 restrictions between 1 January 2020 and 1 April 2021. No direct link between the government response to COVID-19 and change in support for populist parties could be established based on the examined data. However, it is not unlikely that the COVID-19 restrictions might have an indirect effect on populist support since factors such as technocracy, political trust and external efficacy can influence the attitudes of citizens towards the COVID-19 measures, as well as populist support. Keywords: populism, populist support, COVID-19 crisis, COVID-19 responses, the Netherlands, Italy